Civilizations' energy growth isn't what we thought ⚡ экспресс
Original: "Kardashev's Conundrum: Statistical Falsification of Exponential Energy Growth, the Non-Observation of Type II Technosignatures, and the Kardashev-Sagan-Nakamoto Resolution"
Real energy consumption growth is double the forecasts, but it dashes dreams of supercivilizations.
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Humanity is growing faster than Kardashev expected, but we still won't become a supercivilization. It turns out we'll never build a Dyson sphere — either there's not enough time, or we'll melt from our own heat. Scientists have come up with a new way to measure progress: not just energy, but information.
🎯 If energy consumption growth were linear, humanity would need about 100,000 ages of the Universe to reach a Type II civilization level.
🎬 The Dyson sphere, described by Larry Niven in 'Ringworld', is a favorite construct of science fiction.
B = \frac{P}{H}
B — a new measure of civilization (J/hash), P — power output, H — global hashrate