Civilizations' energy growth isn't what we thought ✎ express

Original: "Kardashev's Conundrum: Statistical Falsification of Exponential Energy Growth, the Non-Observation of Type II Technosignatures, and the Kardashev-Sagan-Nakamoto Resolution"
· Sebastian Gurovich
arXiv:2604.17516 · 2026-04-19 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
Real energy consumption growth is double the forecasts, but it dashes dreams of supercivilizations.

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Humanity is a pot on a stove. Sixty years of data show: the heat is being turned up faster than astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev expected — about 2% per year, not 1%. But even so, the pot will never hold an ocean: to harness all the energy of the Sun with even heating would take a time comparable to the age of the Universe. And accelerated heating over a thousand years would heat the planet to the temperature of the solar corona — the civilization would melt. This is the paradox: supercivilizations are doomed to overheat to stellar scale.

The solution is to evaluate not just power, but steam control. A new index 'CarNac' (joule per hash) links energy to computation, such as mining. Taking into account the entropy of data processing, it explains why photometry — precise measurements of stellar brightness — doesn't find Dyson spheres: advanced civilizations prefer to compute, not burn.

If energy consumption growth were linear, humanity would need about 100,000 ages of the Universe to reach a Type II civilization level.

The Dyson sphere, described by Larry Niven in 'Ringworld', is a favorite construct of science fiction.

B = \frac{P}{H}
B — a new measure of civilization (J/hash), P — power output, H — global hashrate
Scientists
Alan GuthAlexander FriedmannAndrei LindeGeorges LemaîtreJames PeeblesLudwig Boltzmann
Concepts
starobinsky inflation