How Long Do You Think You'll Live? The Accuracy of Subjective Longevity Forecasts Among Japanese People
Every one of us has wondered at least once how many years we'll live. In 1996, nearly two and a half thousand Japanese people over sixty answered that question in a national survey. Their answers became a kind of mirror reflecting hopes, fears, and habits of thought. Twenty-eight years later, researchers compared those forecasts with actual dates of death and found that the mirror was warped, but not useless.