Five Times More Flares Before the Storm express

Original: "Brightenings AnD Polarity Inversion Tracking (BADPIT) method for studying solar active region evolution before major solar flares"
arXiv:2604.26036 · 2026-04-28 · CC BY 4.0 · 1 min
A new method reveals how the Sun stores energy before a powerful eruption.

The Sun has regions that resemble an overheated boiler: magnetic fields there twist into tight ropes and store energy. Every so often, a rope snaps, and a flare erupts, a powerful explosion that hurls streams of charged particles into space. Such blasts can knock out satellites and disrupt communications on Earth.

Scientists have devised a way to anticipate where a rope is about to break. They monitor small, bright ultraviolet flashes — visible only to specialized telescopes and lasting from a minute to an hour. It turns out that in regions where a major eruption will occur within hours, these flashes are five times more frequent than in quiet areas. It's as if light bulbs started flickering frequently in one neighborhood before an earthquake.

The method is called BADPIT: it tracks flares and the polarity inversion line, where the rope most often snaps.

So far, the method has been tested on two regions of the Sun: one produced a powerful flare, the other remained quiet. The result is encouraging: in the hours before the eruption, the number of small flares rises sharply. If confirmed with more observations, space weather forecasts could become more accurate, and satellites and power grids on Earth would be safer.

The small flares that precede a big one last only a few minutes, but their combined energy is comparable to millions of atomic bombs.

In the movie Knowing, solar flares wipe out all life on Earth — an early warning could have given humanity a chance to take shelter.

Scientists
Ludwig BoltzmannMichael FaradayHendrik LorentzJocelyn Bell BurnellJoseph von FraunhoferGalileo Galilei
Concepts
solar flare active region transit method solar flare prediction