econ.GN econ.GN

On an African field, maize has just been harvested. The grain sits in sacks, and for armed groups it's a lure: something to take from farmers. But if the harvest fails, the lure disappears, and attacks become fewer. That's exactly what happens when El Niño (the warm current in the Pacific Ocean that alters weather worldwide) brings drought to Africa's farming regions.

Inside the concrete dam, machines hum, running on empty. Three out of ten turbines are silent. The water level in Southeast Brazil’s largest reservoir has dropped so low that the blades are about to gulp air. The country’s 160 hydropower plants, which supply more than half its electricity, are linked into a single water network where every drop counts.

Every month, satellites measure temperature and humidity over different parts of the planet. Over 24 years, thousands of such paired measurements have accumulated. Normally, temperature and humidity change in concert: when it warms, the air holds more water; when it cools, it releases it. But before a sharp climate shift, this coordination breaks down.