Why Warming Came in Jumps ✎

Original: "The Shifts Hypothesis - an alternative view of global climate change"
· P. V Belolipetsky
arXiv:1406.5805 · 2014-06-23 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
Global temperature didn't rise smoothly but in two sharp leaps: in 1987/1988 and 1997/1998.

Picture a staircase with two tall steps and long, flat landings in between. That's exactly how Earth's temperature changed from 1950 to 2013, according to the researchers.

First, they subtracted the influence of El Niño, a natural fluctuation in Pacific Ocean temperatures. What remained was a clear step-like pattern: from 1950 to 1987 temperature barely moved, then jumped sharply, stalled again until 1997, jumped once more, and then stayed flat until 2013.

So almost all the warming happened not gradually, but in two short bursts. In between, greenhouse gases kept accumulating, yet temperature held steady. This contradicts the familiar idea that climate should smoothly track rising carbon dioxide.

This behavior is reminiscent of a home thermostat: it keeps a room at one temperature, and when you turn the dial, it quickly shifts to another. Perhaps climate has a similar mechanism that models don't yet capture. For now, this finding helps build more accurate statistical descriptions of temperature, but practical use for forecasts is not yet apparent.

The idea of a climate thermostat was discussed as early as 1991, when the New York Times wrote about possible self-regulation of climate, and a cloud-based mechanism was proposed by Ramanathan and Collins.

Concepts
global warming seasonal forcing natural variability annual cycle greenhouse effect El Niño climate ENSO temperature anomaly heat flow Jin-Timmermann model El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate network Pacific decadal oscillation decadal variability regime shift heat carbon cycle UAH satellite record Allen's rule