An abrupt change in the statistical properties of a time series, often from one stable state to another.A regime shift is a sudden, often persistent change in the behavior of a system that has been in one stable state for a long time. In a time series, this appears as an abrupt jump in the average value, variance, or other statistical properties. For example, a lake might switch from clear water to a turbid, algae-dominated state, or a financial market might shift from low volatility to high volatility. These shifts are often caused by a gradual change in an external condition that eventually crosses a threshold, after which the system rapidly reorganizes into a new state.
The concept gained prominence in ecology in the 1960s and 1970s, with work by C.S. Holling and others on multiple stable states in ecosystems. It was later applied to climate science, particularly to explain abrupt climate changes in the paleoclimate record.
Many systems have multiple possible stable states. A small perturbation around a stable state decays, keeping the system there. But if an external driver (like temperature or nutrient input) changes slowly, it can alter the shape of the system's 'energy landscape,' making one stable state disappear or become unstable. When this happens, the system is forced to move quickly to another stable state. This movement is often much faster than the original driver change, hence the appearance of a sudden shift.
It is used in ecosystem management to anticipate and possibly prevent undesirable shifts, such as the collapse of a fishery or the desertification of a grassland.
Some climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which drives the Gulf Stream, could undergo a regime shift if global warming continues, leading to drastic cooling in Europe.




