Why a Warm Ocean Rocks Its Neighbor ✎

Original: "Coupling functions in climate"
· Woosok Moon, John S. Wettlaufer
arXiv:1909.05096 · 2019-09-03 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
Warm water in the Pacific Ocean drives seasonal changes in the Indian Ocean, not the other way around.

In the tropics, the two oceans behave like neighboring swings. One child pumps by themselves, while the other barely moves until the first gives a push. Similarly, warm water in the Pacific Ocean causes water in the Indian Ocean to change temperature.

El Niño is when water in the Pacific becomes warmer than usual. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the temperature difference between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. Scientists took 149 years of data and built a model showing who influences whom.

The model is like two equations, each describing one ocean but with an added term from the other. This term is called the coupling function, and it shows the strength of the influence.

It turned out that El Niño strongly influences the Indian Ocean Dipole, especially in August, when the dipole is just starting to form. The reverse influence, however, is barely noticeable. So you could say that the Pacific Ocean rocks the Indian Ocean, not the other way around.

The names El Niño and La Niña are linked to Christmas: the warm phase often peaks in December, and Peruvian fishermen named it after the Christ child.

\frac{d\eta_1}{dt} = a_1(t)\eta_1 + N_1(t)\xi_1(t) + b_{12}(t)(\eta_2-\eta_1), \quad \frac{d\eta_2}{dt} = a_2(t)\eta_2 + N_2(t)\xi_2(t) + b_{21}(t)(\eta_1-\eta_2)
The change of each variable is determined by its own stability, noise, and the difference with the other variable multiplied by the coupling function.
Concepts
ocean-atmosphere coupling Indian Ocean Dipole ENSO TAO/TRITON moorings Multivariate ENSO Index zebiak cane model interannual variability Jin-Timmermann model climate network El Niño index Teleconnection El Niño NOAA CPC seasonal cycle IRI North Atlantic Oscillation tropospheric biennial oscillation mixed mode oscillations seasonal forcing empirical orthogonal function