The Ocean Sings in Many Voices ✎

Original: "Rotated spectral principal component analysis (rsPCA) for identifying dynamical modes of variability in climate systems"
arXiv:2004.11411 · 2020-04-23 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 2 min
How scientists learned to separate similar climate oscillations by rotating the axes of analysis.

Earth's climate is like a choir, where each member sings their own part. Some oscillations are slow, like multi-year changes in ocean temperature; others are fast, like short atmospheric waves. Scientists need to hear each voice, but the voices overlap, and the notes blend into a mush.

Spectral principal component analysis is a way to sort voices by frequency, but it also gets confused when two singers hit the same note with equal strength.

Previously, this method was sensitive to noise, like a listener bothered by the hum of the hall. And if two oscillations had equal strength, they couldn't be separated. The authors of the new work solved both problems. They used a special wave pulse that picks out frequencies well even in short segments, and then added a rotation of the analysis axes. This rotation is like adjusting a microphone: if two voices sound equally loud, you can turn the microphone so it picks up one singer more clearly.

The rotation is done so that the wave phase becomes flat. For a traveling wave, the phase changes smoothly, like a wave moving across a stadium. If the phase comes out jagged, the axis is turned incorrectly. The new method, called rotated spectral PCA, finds a position where each mode looks like a clean traveling wave. On synthetic data with two waves traveling in opposite directions, the method accurately recovered both waves, even when they had equal strength and were hidden by noise.

The method was then applied to real data of Pacific Ocean surface temperature from 1940 to 2018. At low frequencies, it isolated the El Niño mode with a period of 2–7 years, and its match with the known index was 0.72. At higher frequencies, the rotation helped separate several modes, including a wave in the South Pacific that moves westward at about 0.4 meters per second. For comparison, that is the speed of a leisurely walk. Previously, such modes blended into an indistinguishable hum, but now they can be listened to individually.

The Morlet wavelet is named after French geophysicist Jean Morlet, who developed it in the 1980s for analyzing seismic signals, not climate data.

Concepts
principal component analysis NOAA CPC nonlinear laplacian spectral analysis PCR Pacific decadal oscillation recharge oscillator model ENSO resonant frequency Niño 4 seasonal cycle natural variability noise reduction spectroscopy reanalysis angular frequency Southern Oscillation spectroscopy Multivariate ENSO Index spectral pattern Spectral Analysis exoplanet atmospheric spectroscopy