The Ocean Warns of Drought a Year in Advance ✎

Original: "Discovering causal factors of drought in Ethiopia"
arXiv:2009.07955 · 2020-09-16 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
As the Pacific cools in the La Niña phase, it increases the risk of drought in Ethiopia 12 months before the event.

An Ethiopian farmer looks at the sky and waits for rain. If it doesn't come, fields dry up and children go hungry. Previously, no one could say in advance what the season would be like. Now scientists have found a clue thousands of kilometers away: in the Pacific Ocean.

The Pacific Ocean acts like an orchestra conductor. When its waters off the coast of South America become colder than usual, that is the La Niña phase. The signal travels through the air like a wave of the baton, and a year later it reaches Ethiopia. There, it disrupts the rains: the colder the ocean, the drier the season will be. Scientists tested this connection and confirmed that it is real, not a coincidence.

By adding ocean temperature to computer models, forecasters now make fewer mistakes. They can warn farmers 12 months before a potential drought, giving time to stockpile grain and water.

Today, looking at a map of the Pacific Ocean, a meteorologist sees not just a cold patch. He sees a warning that can help Ethiopia face a dry year prepared.

Since 1900, droughts in Ethiopia have affected over 77 million people and killed more than 400,000.

Concepts
drought spring predictability barrier ENSO tropospheric biennial oscillation interannual variability El Niño-Southern Oscillation monsoon onset precipitation anomaly Jin-Timmermann model IRI Multivariate ENSO Index monsoon sea surface temperature La Niña precipitation ERSST TAO/TRITON moorings natural variability climate Indian Ocean Dipole