Solar wind skews the cosmic ray map express

Original: "Addressing the Impact of Solar Modulation Systematic Uncertainties on Cosmic-Ray Propagation Models"
arXiv:2602.17759 · 2026-02-19 · CC BY 4.0 · 1 min
Solar activity throws off cosmic ray measurements by 10–15%.

Cosmic rays are charged particles that reach us from distant stellar explosions. But before hitting a detector, they must pass through the bubble of the solar wind. The Sun breathes: it inflates this bubble, then contracts it. Particles have to fight through a changing magnetic field, like a swimmer against a current that alternately strengthens and weakens.

Scientists took data from the AMS-02 detector on the International Space Station over an entire 11-year solar activity cycle. They tested how well different models describe the way the Sun distorts the particle flux. The simple model, like a current map that ignores obstacles, worked only in quiet years and only for positively charged nuclei. For antiprotons, it was wrong at all times.

The solar cycle lasts 11 years, but the Sun's magnetic field flips once every 22 years. Particles with different charges behave differently during these periods.

Errors pile up: in the end, scientists get a cosmic ray map shifted by 10–15%. It's like measuring a river's depth without knowing that the water level changes with the seasons. To see the true picture, observations spanning a full 22-year cycle are needed — then the Sun's breathing can be separated from distant sources.

Antiprotons are rare visitors: there are a million times fewer of them than ordinary protons, but they are precisely the ones sensitive to the direction of the Sun's magnetic field.

Scientists
Ludwig BoltzmannEnrico FermiCecilia Payne-GaposchkinErnest RutherfordJoseph von FraunhoferFred Lawrence Whipple
Concepts
solar cycle space weather solar orbiter cosmic chronometry solar magnetic phenomena quasi biennial oscillation