Pulse of Civilization: The Rhythm That Determines Survival
The fate of a civilization isn't just a matter of luck or disasters. Scientists simulated a thousand years of history under ten different scenarios, accounting for resource consumption, governance, and random shocks. The key metric turned out to be the 'activity coefficient' – the fraction of time when a civilization is technologically alive. At best, this fraction nears 100%; at worst, it drops to 38%.