The Wind with No Average ✎

Original: "Comments on the Regional Climate Variability Driven by Foehn Winds in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica"
· Krzysztof Sienicki
arXiv:1308.4630 · 2013-08-21 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
The average wind speed in Antarctica's Dry Valleys cannot be calculated, so looking for its link to climate is pointless.

If you measure the heights of people in a room, you can find the average height. But if an infinitely tall person walks in, the average ceases to exist. Something similar has happened with the wind in the McMurdo Dry Valleys: gusts can be so strong that the mean wind speed becomes meaningless.

Scientists examined weather station data and found that wind speeds follow a power law with an exponent less than two. This means that very strong gusts occur more often than you might expect. As a result, the mean wind speed is infinitely large, and any average computed from a finite sample will be random and unreliable.

In such cases, it is better to use the median, that is, the value that splits all measurements in half. The median remains finite even when the mean is infinite.

Therefore, correlations between mean wind speed and climate indices, as calculated in a previous study, have no statistical meaning. Before looking for relationships, you need to check whether standard methods can be applied to such data at all. In the McMurdo Dry Valleys, the mean wind speed is a quantity that cannot be defined, and any conclusions about its connection to global climate turn out to be wrong.

If a distribution has an exponent less than 2, the mean is infinite, but the median remains finite. So in such cases, it is better to describe the typical wind speed with the median rather than the arithmetic mean.

\langle x \rangle = \int x p(x) dx
The mean value, which diverges if the integral does not converge
p(x) \sim x^{-\alpha}
A heavy-tailed distribution where alpha less than 2 leads to an infinite mean
Concepts
natural variability El Niño spring predictability barrier Multivariate ENSO Index monsoon ENSO North Atlantic Oscillation NOAA CPC El Niño index Southern Oscillation interannual variability precipitation anomaly Westerly wind burst wind probabilistic forecast climate seasonal forcing seasonal cycle Jin-Timmermann model ERSST