Why Antarctic Sea Ice Advances and Retreats ✎

Original: "The Antarctic circumpolar wave and its seasonality: Intrinsic traveling modes and ENSO teleconnections"
arXiv:1805.05525 · 2018-05-15 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
The ocean around Antarctica breathes with waves of warmth and cold, and one of them circles the continent every eight years.

Imagine a ribbon wrapped around Antarctica. Along this ribbon, as on a circular track, runs a wave: now warm water, now cold. It completes one lap in eight years. Sometimes the wave stalls so that one ocean warms while another cools. Previously, this frozen frame was mistaken for a separate phenomenon and called a dipole.

The new method works like a smart ear. It listens to all ocean oscillations at once and sorts them into categories, without requiring noise to be removed in advance. This made it possible to hear not only the main wave with two crests, but also quiet secondary waves that arise when the annual cycle superimposes on the four-year rhythm.

The main wave almost perfectly matches the rhythm of El Niño, the warm current in the tropical Pacific. Their correlation reaches 90 percent. This means that the tropics can be used to predict the behavior of Antarctic ice.

The wave with three crests has no such connection. It lives its own life, governed by local winds. Now that all the ocean's voices are heard, scientists can make predictions: how ice and water temperature will change in the coming seasons. The eight-year cycle continues, but now we know its music.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Wave circles Antarctica in about 8 years, carrying temperature and ice anomalies at speeds of about 6–8 cm/s, comparable to a walking pace.

Concepts
nonlinear laplacian spectral analysis ENSO Atlantic multidecadal oscillation equatorial wave propagation natural variability Southern Oscillation North Equatorial Countercurrent interannual variability recharge oscillator model NOAA CPC El Niño index Teleconnection Niño 4 Multivariate ENSO Index Jin-Timmermann model seasonal cycle Indian Ocean Dipole Kelvin wave multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis sea surface temperature anomaly