Why Systems with Memory Abruptly Change Behavior: A Bifurcation Map from DDE-BIFTOOL ✎

Original: "Bifurcation Analysis of Systems with Delays: Methods and Their Use in Applications"
· Bernd Krauskopf, Jan Sieber
arXiv:2009.10860 · 2020-09-22 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
How a computer tracks the moments when a delayed system suddenly starts behaving differently.

A cartographer walking along a mountain trail notes the passes, the places where the path turns sharply. In the science of dynamical systems, such passes are called bifurcations: when a parameter changes smoothly, the system's behavior suddenly changes qualitatively, for instance, a calm equilibrium gives way to oscillations.

When a system has a delay, meaning its response depends on the past, mapping these passes becomes very difficult. The computer program DDE-BIFTOOL comes to the rescue. It slowly varies the parameter and watches for a bifurcation. This approach allowed researchers to study the El Niño model: the program found oscillations with a period of about 3–4 years, matching real observations.

In another example, an equation with two feedback loops where the delay depends on the solution itself, the program found several stable states and moments of abrupt switching between them.

Such a tool is useful for climatologists, neuroscientists, and engineers: it lets them know in advance where a system might suddenly change behavior, so they can prepare for that pass.

DDE-BIFTOOL has been under development since the 1990s and is still actively used by dozens of research groups worldwide; its core is written in MATLAB and is compatible with GNU Octave.

Concepts
delay differential equation differential equations Dynamical Systems saddle node bifurcation detrended fluctuation analysis bistability time delay finite element method dimensionality reduction boosted decision tree stochastic dynamical system delayed oscillator theory FAO GIEWS reanalysis chaos theory forecast decadal variability GODAS diagnosis density functional theory