Sometimes the ocean and the sky dance together. When the warm current El Niño arrives in the Pacific, rains over India usually quiet down. But in recent decades, this dance has stumbled: rains don't always follow the warm water. Scientists set out to find out why.

Earlier, they simply looked at average values over many years. That's like trying to understand a dance from a single photograph. Now they've been smarter: they ran a hundred identical climate models with slightly different starting conditions. After forty years, all these models, like dancers, find a common rhythm. From their spread, you can precisely measure the connection.

It turned out that over the past century, the link between the warm current and rains became stronger. But when the models looked into the future, where greenhouse gas emissions rise, the link didn't change. The dance stayed the same, even though the music got louder. So, it's not just about warming. Now scientists want to test this method on other pairs, for example, the link between El Niño and rains in Africa.