The Ocean as an Orchestra: Why a Neural Network Predicts Rivers Better When It Listens to All the Musicians ✎

Original: "Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows"
arXiv:2201.02596 · 2022-01-07 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
A neural network that sees the entire ocean's temperature predicts the Amazon and Congo river flows more accurately than old methods relying on a single number.

An orchestra plays, but you only hear one violin. That's how river flooding used to be predicted: take the water temperature in a tiny square of the Pacific Ocean and use it to judge whether the Amazon would flood. But the ocean is vast, and heat flows from one place to another, like music moving between instruments.

El Niño is a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It affects weather worldwide, including rivers.

Scientists let the neural network listen to the whole orchestra: they showed it ocean surface temperatures over 56 years across a huge area from the Indian Ocean to the mid-Pacific. The network learned to predict how much water would flow through the Amazon and Congo. It turned out to make smaller errors than old methods that only looked at one violin. The network also revealed that not only waters near South America matter, but also the Indian Ocean, and even connections between distant regions.

But there's a catch: when the network trained on computer models of the ocean, it found many long-distance connections, but in real observations there are fewer. This suggests that models may exaggerate how strongly different ocean regions influence each other. Now that we know where the network looks, we can improve both the forecasts and the climate models. The ocean conducts rivers with its full orchestra, and we are learning to hear every musician.

The threshold for teleconnections in model data was set at a distance of 19000 km, which is almost half the Earth's circumference. In reanalyses, the threshold had to be lowered to 15000 km because there are fewer long-range connections.

S = \frac{\partial y}{\partial X}
Shows how strongly each pixel of the input ocean temperature image influences the river discharge prediction.
S_M = \frac{1}{M} \sum_{t=1}^{M} \frac{\partial y_t}{\partial X_t}
Averaging saliency maps over a cycle (e.g., 12 months) to suppress noise and highlight stable patterns.
Concepts
ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation El Niño index ERSST Jin-Timmermann model equatorial wave propagation spring predictability barrier Multivariate ENSO Index La Niña Southern Oscillation recharge oscillator model Warm water volume relative ONI NOAA CPC neural network regression TAO/TRITON moorings Teleconnection deep neural network Westerly wind burst North Equatorial Countercurrent