How to Spot El Niño a Year in Advance ✎

Original: "Very early warning of a moderate-to-strong El Niño in 2023"
arXiv:2301.10763 · 2023-01-25 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
Two methods detected the approach of a warm Pacific current a full year before it changed the weather.

Imagine having two thermometers placed in different locations. One measures how much ocean temperature is "fidgeting," while the other tracks how tightly different points on the planet are linked. In the spring of 2022, both thermometers showed the same thing: El Niño was on its way. That is the name for the warm current in the Pacific that alters weather worldwide.

These two methods had already warned of El Niño seven times before, and all seven predictions came true.

The first method looks at "disorder" in temperature: if it starts fluctuating more than usual, El Niño is approaching. The second method notices that points in the ocean begin to "coordinate" with each other, as if exchanging signals. When both methods agree, you can say with near certainty that the warm current will arrive.

Thanks to such early warning, people gain a whole year to prepare: stockpile water, reinforce homes, and replant crops. Previously, El Niño was detected only a few months ahead, leaving almost no time for preparation.

From 1981 to 2022, the climate network model issued 11 alarms, of which 8 were correct, and in the stricter version, all 8 alarms were correct.

SysSampEn(m,p,l_eff,γ) = -log(A/B)
SysSampEn is approximately equal to the negative natural logarithm of the conditional probability that two subsequences that are similar over m consecutive points remain similar over the next p points.
Concepts
ENSO El Niño El Niño-Southern Oscillation spring predictability barrier La Niña recharge oscillator model Multivariate ENSO Index ERSST Jin-Timmermann model Southern Oscillation relative ONI Warm water volume NOAA CPC Westerly wind burst TAO/TRITON moorings interannual variability North Equatorial Countercurrent natural variability seasonal cycle monsoon onset