A. Bunde

An invisible barometer hangs over the Pacific Ocean. Its needle swings from the western shores to the central waters, and in December it shows what the next storm will be like: not just whether it will come, but where it will hit hardest.

In May 2022, sea surface temperatures off the coast of Peru were a degree below normal. Nothing hinted at trouble, but two independent "seismographs" had already picked up a rumble from below: El Niño was coming in a year.

The Pacific Ocean breathes, and that breath has a pulse. Every few years, its surface warms more than usual, bringing torrential rains to Peru and drought to Australia. This is El Niño, the warm phase of the ocean temperature oscillation.

The Pacific Ocean is a giant network of nerve endings that warns of an impending attack a year in advance. In 2023–2024, El Niño, the warm phase of the Pacific climate oscillation, pushed global temperatures to record highs. Now, two independent methods, like two doctors examining the same symptoms, agree: no new attack in 2025.