The Pacific Ocean is like a vast network of nerve endings that warns of an impending attack a year in advance. El Niño is the warm phase of temperature oscillations in the Pacific. When it arrives, the whole planet warms up. In 2023–2024, El Niño pushed temperatures to a record high. Now two independent methods, like two doctors, look at the symptoms and say: no attack in 2025.

The first method examines how temperatures at different points in the ocean are connected. If the connections become strong, it resembles nerves starting to fire before an attack. In 2024, the connections remained weak. The second method measures how chaotic temperature changes are. Before El Niño, chaos usually increases, but now it is low. Both methods give a probability of about 91% that El Niño will not start in 2025.

This means the year will most likely be neutral, and the global temperature will drop slightly after the record 2024. For farmers, energy managers, and water managers, this is good news: they can plan the year with more confidence.