The Climate Swings of Ancient Mars ✎ express

Original: "Limit cycles and the climate history of Mars"
· Jacob Haqq-Misra
arXiv:2601.07159v2 · 2026-01-12 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
The planet periodically heated up and was briefly covered with rivers and lakes.

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For a long time, the climate of ancient Mars remained a mystery: the beds of dried-up rivers spoke of water, but models couldn't explain how it got there — after all, 4 billion years ago the Sun shone 30% dimmer. New research shows that the planet swayed, as if on a swing, between long glaciations and short wet epochs.

The culprit behind these swings was carbon dioxide. During cold periods it got bound up in rocks, and Mars froze. Then volcanoes spewed the gas back out, causing abrupt warming. Streams of water flowed across the surface, carving the valleys we see today. Each thaw lasted less than the entire existence of the human species, just a few million years, but that was enough to leave a noticeable mark.

Scientists accounted for the fact that the Sun brightened over time, and that Mars' axis wobbled greatly. Calculations showed that the climate swings occurred several times, explaining the different ages of the valleys. However, with each cycle, some of the atmosphere escaped into space, and eventually the planet froze for good. Today Mars is an icy desert, but remnants of ancient ice may still lurk beneath the surface.

Mars' axis wobbled greatly, sometimes exposing ice to direct sunlight: this added sharpness to the climate swings.

This picture echoes images of ancient Mars from science fiction, where a dying civilization struggled against encroaching drought.

Scientists
Daniel BernoulliLeonhard EulerArchimedesJames Jeans
Concepts
seasonal cycle climate climate model lunar formation giant impact carbon cycle El Niño decadal variability tropical cyclone marine heatwave magma ocean drought seasonal forcing mode of variability Atlantic multidecadal oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation mars spring predictability barrier ocean current mixed mode oscillations global warming