The Warm Current That Spins the Earth ✎

Original: "Quantifying the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) coupling to CO2 concentration and to the length of day variations"
arXiv:1206.5828 · 2012-06-25 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
A strong El Niño speeds up Earth's rotation and raises carbon dioxide levels.

Sometimes a vast warm current appears in the Pacific Ocean, changing weather across the globe. This is El Niño. When it is particularly strong, strange things happen: carbon dioxide levels in the air rise, and Earth itself starts spinning a little faster. For a long time, scientists could only guess that these events were connected.

Now researchers have compared records spanning several decades: the strength of El Niño (measured by six ocean indicators), carbon dioxide levels in Hawaii, and the length of the day (which fluctuates slightly around 24 hours). It turns out that after a strong El Niño, CO2 growth accelerates three months later, and Earth's rotation four months later. The relationship is as regular as clockwork: the stronger the current, the more noticeable the effect.

There is a simple rule: each unit of El Niño strength adds 0.55 parts per million of carbon dioxide per year and shortens the day by 0.27 milliseconds per year.

But in 1991, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted so much ash that the link was disrupted for two years. This shows that under normal conditions, the rhythm holds. Now scientists can test their models: if a model reproduces these numbers, it correctly captures how the ocean, the atmosphere, and Earth's rotation are interconnected.

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 so strongly affected the global carbon cycle that it disrupted the link between El Niño and the CO₂ growth rate for two years.

\Delta CO_2/год = 0.55 \times MEI
Conversion coefficient between the El Niño index and the CO₂ growth rate
\Delta LOD/год = -0.27 \times MEI
Conversion coefficient between the El Niño index and the rate of change of day length
Concepts
Multivariate ENSO Index ENSO El Niño index El Niño-Southern Oscillation TAO/TRITON moorings Southern Oscillation spring predictability barrier Jin-Timmermann model La Niña NOAA CPC relative ONI ERSST natural variability recharge oscillator model North Equatorial Countercurrent interannual variability ocean-atmosphere coupling Warm water volume Teleconnection monsoon