The Salt Chronicle of the Messinian Crisis ✎

Original: "High-frequency cyclicity in the Mediterranean Messinian evaporites: evidence for solar-lunar climate forcing"
arXiv:1212.6394 · 2012-12-27 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 2 min
Annual salt and gypsum layers in Sicily recorded climate rhythms similar to modern El Niño and solar cycles.

A rock chronicle where each layer is a page, and spectral analysis reads the rhythm of the lines. In the Realmonte salt mine in Sicily, geologists measured the thickness of 120 three-part cycles: a millimeter-scale clay parting, a thin anhydrite or polyhalite layer, and then a decimeter-scale halite bed. At Pasquasia, they counted 1179 gypsum laminae, each composed of crystals with reverse grading, from fine at the bottom to coarse at the top, indicating deposition from brine over a single evaporation season.

The average thickness of an annual salt layer at Realmonte is 15.1 cm, comparable to the growth rate of salt "fir trees" in modern salt ponds (about 10 cm per year). This means that over a decade, 1.5 meters of pure salt accumulated.

Layer thickness was analyzed using maximum entropy spectral analysis, Lomb periodograms, and Morlet wavelets. In the Realmonte salt record, peaks at periods of 3.2 and 9 years dominate, with less certain peaks at 7.6, 11.5, 15, and 25–27 years. The Pasquasia gypsum record, spanning nearly 1200 years, shows maxima in the ranges of 3.5–5.5, 6, 7.3, 8.6, 11.2, 13, 17.6, 19.6, 51, and 83 years, with the strongest peaks at 4, 20, and 50–100 years.

Recurrence analysis of flood layers yields probability peaks at 4, 7, 9, 11, 15, 20, 24.5, and 32–35 years, with a maximum in the 7–11 year range. Wavelet spectra reveal beat-like oscillations with a period of about 60 years at Realmonte and persistent 3–7 year variability at Pasquasia, reminiscent of El Niño.

These periodicities match modern climate oscillations: the quasi-biennial oscillation, El Niño, the Schwabe solar cycle, and lunisolar tidal rhythms. This is the first direct test showing that quasi-biennial, El Niño, and decadal solar-lunar oscillations operated in a warm climate before the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The result strengthens the position of those who view El Niño not as a product of modern geography but as an ancient, astronomically forced rhythm.

The rock chronicle has been read: even at the height of the salinity crisis, the Mediterranean climate pulsed under astronomical forces independent of geography.

The average thickness of an annual salt layer in Realmonte is 15.1 cm, comparable to the growth rate of salt 'trees' in modern salt ponds (about 10 cm per year). This means that in a single decade, one and a half meters of pure salt accumulated.

In Kim Stanley Robinson's novel 'Forty Signs of Rain', ocean climate oscillations become the key to weather prediction; here, the same rhythms are etched in stone six million years old.

Concepts
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation decadal variability Pacific decadal oscillation solar cycle seasonal cycle seasonal forcing ENSO climate tropical cyclone Multivariate ENSO Index natural variability marine heatwave mixed mode oscillations zebiak cane model hot jupiter atmospheres ocean-atmosphere coupling tidal heating Hadley cell soil moisture annual cycle