Why the Air Over the Po Valley Warms and Cools ✎

Original: "Temperature variability over the Po Valley, Italy, according to radiosounding data"
· Boyan Hristozov Petkov
arXiv:1410.8081 · 2014-10-29 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 2 min
After 22 years of launching instrumented balloons, scientists found that air temperature up to 20 km changes in rhythm with distant oceans and polar winds.

Every day, morning and evening, a white balloon rises from a small station in Italy. It climbs to twenty kilometers, recording how air temperature changes along the way. Over twenty-two years, so many records have piled up that they would fill a book three meters thick. Scientists read that book and found a surprising pattern: the air over the Po Valley breathes in sync with distant oceans and polar winds.

It turns out that the main rhythm of this breathing is set by waves born in the tropics and near the poles. They are like invisible hands that alternately squeeze and release the column of air above Italy. When the tropics warm up, the Po Valley also warms a few weeks later, but only up to about ten kilometers. Higher up, in the cold layer of the atmosphere, the opposite happens: it cools at the same time. This is how the boundary between layers, called the tropopause, works.

The tropopause is like a ceiling in a room: below it the air is warm and mixed, above it is cold and calm. When the lower layer warms, the upper layer cools, and vice versa.

There are also slower rhythms that last for years. The most prominent one is linked to El Niño, the warm current in the Pacific Ocean. When the water there warms, it echoes in the Italian sky a few months later. Scientists could see this because they didn't just look at the graphs; they broke them down into simple repeating patterns, like music into notes. It was already known that global oscillations affect European weather, but no one knew exactly how this happens at different altitudes. Now it's clear: the lower layers follow the tropics, while the upper layers follow the poles and the sun.

This knowledge helps test computer climate models. If a model doesn't reproduce such a rhythm, it must be wrong. For ordinary people, it means that an unusually warm winter in Italy is not just a coincidence but an echo of events thousands of kilometers away.

The San Pietro Capofiume station sits just 11 meters above sea level, yet its radiosondes ascend to 20 km, which is 1800 times higher than the launch point. Over 22 years, more than 16,000 temperature profiles have been collected, which would fill a book about 3 meters thick if each profile took up a page.

Concepts
North Atlantic Oscillation Atlantic multidecadal oscillation natural variability El Niño decadal variability Oceanic Niño index empirical orthogonal function ENSO temperature anomaly Multivariate ENSO Index seasonal cycle La Niña room temperature climate troposphere relative ONI ERSST equatorial wave propagation Warm water volume Indian Ocean Dipole