How to Find the 'Dial' in the Ocean for Rain Forecasting ✛

Original: "Reinforcement Learning to Discover a North-East Monsoon Index for Rainfall Prediction in Thailand"
· Kiattikun Chobtham
arXiv:2601.10181 · 2026-01-15 · CC BY 4.0 · 1 min
A reinforcement learning agent picks two ocean regions whose temperature difference best predicts rains in Thailand months ahead.

Imagine tuning a radio and slowly turning the dial to pick up a station. A reinforcement learning agent does the same, except instead of a dial, it has two rectangles in the ocean that it can shift and stretch. Its goal is to find a pair of regions such that the temperature difference between them best predicts rains in Thailand.

The monsoon index is simply the sea surface temperature difference between two regions, normalized for convenience. The agent changed the regions to make this difference correlate more strongly with rainfall.

Initially, the regions were chosen based on old data, and the link with rains was weak. The agent tried thousands of combinations, and the link strengthened severalfold. The found regions shifted hundreds of kilometers from the original ones. When this new signal was added to a memory-based neural network, the one-year-ahead forecast error decreased in almost all groups of weather stations. Only in one region was there no improvement.

Now forecasters can use this index to better plan water for agriculture and reservoirs. Previously, it was unclear which parts of the ocean to listen to, but now the agent has found the right frequency, and the signal is clearer.

The reinforcement learning agent explored thousands of combinations of rectangles in the ocean to find a pair of regions whose temperature difference best predicts rainfall. The optimal regions turned out to be shifted by hundreds of kilometers from the original ones proposed in previous studies.

Z(t) = \text{normalise}(SST_B(t) - SST_A(t))
Normalized difference of mean sea surface temperatures in regions B and A at time t
Q(A,B) = \frac{1}{2}(R^2_{NEM onset} + R^2_{NEM retreat})
Average of squared correlations of the index with rainfall during the onset and retreat periods of the monsoon
Concepts
monsoon monsoon onset NOAA CPC ERA5 Oceanic Niño index random forest IRI Reinforcement Learning Multivariate ENSO Index interannual variability forecast skill relative ONI GPCP rmse ERSST precipitation anomaly Niño 4 Machine Learning probabilistic forecast tropospheric biennial oscillation