Mars Without Biology: Three Paths to Warmth express
Mars is an icy desert with an average temperature of minus 60. To warm it without biology, scientists propose three approaches with a single idea: create a thick heat-trapping blanket.
First, deploy transparent film-blankets over bases. They let sunlight in but keep heat from escaping, allowing us to harvest water from the soil and grow plants. Second, launch giant mirrors into orbit. They would direct extra sunlight onto the ice caps to vaporize frozen carbon dioxide. Third, directly thicken the planet's gas blanket by adding carbon dioxide and other heat-retaining substances to the atmosphere.
Mars already has a thin blanket of sparse air. Doubling its density could raise temperatures by tens of degrees — like a glass of water under a blanket, slow but unstoppable. And Martian soil is rich in gases: start the heating, and they'll release on their own, amplifying the effect. A single city-sized mirror could trigger a chain reaction. For now, it's all being tested on Earth: for example, baking plastic for domes straight from local air and soil. Small investments today keep alive the chance to someday wrap the Red Planet in warmth.
Original abstract
as written by the authors arXiv:2604.02242
This roadmap outlines research pathways to determine whether Mars could be warmed with non-biological methods. It does not presuppose that warming Mars is desirable; its purpose is to identify what would need to be true for Mars to be warmed, what it would cost, and what could go wrong. Three complementary research tracks appear promising. Solid-state greenhouse membranes offer local warming, aiding water harvesting, food production, and oxygen supply near human bases. Orbiting reflectors can warm key sites such as bases and CO$$_2$$-ice reservoirs, although a large combined area would be required. Strengthening Mars' natural greenhouse effect might warm large regions or the globe, although many aspects remain to be worked out. Each approach carries scientific and technical risks that research must address. Near-term priorities are on-Earth testing of key parameters that will determine whether engineered aerosol warming is realistically possible, assessing whether exponential production of bioplastic habitats is possible, and designing at-Mars process experiments. In the near term, the research proposed here is closely aligned with and supports research needed to understand Mars' atmosphere and volatile evolution and hazards to human explorers. The main external uncertainty is whether or not launch costs continue to fall. This is early-stage research, and we discuss key near-term decision points, alternative pathways, and payoffs if research outcomes are negative. We also outline build-out pathways if research succeeds and demand exists. Relatively modest research investments would keep open the option of extending life beyond Earth as Mars' scientific exploration continues.
Carbon dioxide on Mars freezes out of the atmosphere and falls as frost — much like the dry ice used to create fog at concerts.
In classic science fiction, such as Kim Stanley Robinson's 'Mars Trilogy', people deploy giant mirrors in orbit to melt the polar caps and build an atmosphere.