A Map of Mutation Winds: Where DNA Flows Downhill and Where It Swirls into Eddies ✛ ✎

Original: "Human mutation field reveals an equilibrium-like structure with irreversible circulation"
arXiv:2609.07500v1 · 2026-09-07 · CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 · independent analysis · 2 min
Mutations in human DNA almost always flow down an energy slope, but CpG sites harbor weak, irreversible eddies.

Picture a wind map over a mountain range. The wind mostly blows downhill, following elevation changes. But if you look closely, in some valleys the air swirls into little eddies that keep the wind from simply flowing down. That is exactly what the mutation field in human DNA looks like.

Scientists took the probabilities of one DNA letter being replaced by another in the context of six neighboring letters and turned them into a field akin to a wind map. For each pair of substitutions, they calculated how much more often one substitution occurs compared to its reverse. The result is an arrow indicating the direction of the mutation flow.

It turns out that most of this field can be explained by a simple rule: mutations go where the DNA sequence is more stable. This is like water flowing into lowlands. The scientists trained a neural network to predict only such "slopes" and found that it reproduces the genome's composition and the famous Chargaff symmetry, where the frequency of a word equals the frequency of its mirror image.

But a small part of the field remains that cannot be reduced to slopes. These are eddies where mutations swirl into cycles: for example, letter A changes to G, G to T, and T back to A. Such cycles break detailed balance, where each step is balanced by its reverse. The eddies are weak but reproducible: they are visible in African, Asian, and European populations.

The eddies are most pronounced at CpG sites, where cytosine precedes guanine. This points to a specific biochemical mechanism: deamination of methylcytosine. Methylated cytosine loses its amino group and becomes thymine, creating a one-way mutation flow.

The mutation wind map shows that the human genome is nearly at equilibrium: the main flow goes downhill, like water from a mountain. But in CpG valleys, weak eddies remain, reminding us that even in a calm landscape there are irreversible currents. These eddies are traces of molecular processes that can be measured and used to analyze mutations in cancer or when comparing species.

Chargaff's symmetry, which the model reproduces, was discovered by Erwin Chargaff in the 1950s and became a key clue for Watson and Crick in solving the structure of DNA.

Concepts
mutation biological stochastic dynamics predictive model phylogenetic network evolution horizontal gene transfer linear inverse model genetic algorithm Price equation linear regression Haeckel's biogenetic law stochastic gene expression monsoon Hardy–Weinberg principle genomics prediction prognosis regime shift Analogue forecast CPT theorem