A Council of Elders Instead of a Popular Vote: How to Pick the Best El Niño Forecasts
In a room with 80 advisors, each shouts their own opinion, and if you simply listen to everyone and take the average, you get mush. So it is with El Niño forecasts: a model produces 80 possible futures, but not all are equally useful. Some err less often, others more, and still others talk about something else entirely.