The Sun Drives the Paraná's Floods ✎

Original: "Solar Forcing of the Streamflow of a Continental Scale South American River"
arXiv:0810.3882 · 2008-10-21 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
A major South American river floods more when sunspot activity is high.

The Paraná River in South America acts like an instrument that records solar activity. People have measured the river's daily flow since 1904. Astronomers, meanwhile, counted sunspots. It turns out that when there are many sunspots, the river floods more.

Sunspots are regions where the Sun's magnetic field breaks through the surface. More sunspots mean the Sun sends more energy toward Earth.

The researchers smoothed both datasets over 11 years to remove short-term fluctuations. The resulting correlation was 0.78, which is roughly the strength of the link between a person's height and weight: strong but not perfect. On shorter timescales, from year to year, the river follows the rhythm of El Niño, the warm water off the coast of Peru. In 1997, a strong El Niño caused the river to flood an area larger than Greece.

So the Sun does not simply heat Earth uniformly. It influences where rain falls. When solar activity is high, southeastern South America gets more rain, while East Africa gets less. The Paraná River, like a large gauge, reflects this difference. If the connection is confirmed with other data, it could be used to warn people about floods in advance.

During the 1997 flood, 180,000 square kilometers were under water, an area larger than Greece. Some 125,000 people had to be evacuated, and 25 died.

S = (63.6 \pm 59.3) \cdot SN_f + (3.6 \pm 0.6) \times 10^2 \cdot N12 + (6.5 \pm 1.3) \times 10^4
S is discharge, SN_f is the smoothed sunspot number, N12 is the El Nino 1+2 index. Coefficients are from data for 1949-1999, correlation r=0.66.
Concepts
El Niño seasonal forcing La Niña monsoon interannual variability ENSO Niño 1+2 ocean current seasonal cycle IRI Southern Oscillation climate solar corona North Equatorial Countercurrent precipitation solar cycle tropical cyclone NOAA CPC wind stress Bjerknes feedback