Why Warming Paused: An Unexpected Conductor of Climate

Original: "Major Contribution of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases to Global Surface Temperature Change"
· Qing-Bin Lu
arXiv:2202.03138 · 2022-01-05 · CC BY 4.0 · 1 min
Chlorofluorocarbons, not carbon dioxide, drove Earth's temperature from the 1970s, and their decline explains the warming pause.

Earth's climate is like an orchestra that has long been conducted by the wrong musician. Carbon dioxide was blamed as the main culprit of warming, but in fact, chlorofluorocarbons played first fiddle: gases once found in refrigerators and hairspray cans. They trap heat ten thousand times more effectively than CO₂.

In the 1990s, countries agreed to cut emissions of these gases to save the ozone layer. And then something strange happened: global warming paused from 2000 to 2015. Scientists debated why carbon dioxide-based models didn't predict this. The answer is simple: the pause coincided with the ban on chlorofluorocarbons.

Now warming is returning, especially in the Arctic, where melting ice accelerates heating of coastal regions.

New calculations, made without tuning parameters, accurately reproduced the temperature when chlorofluorocarbons were taken into account. This doesn't negate the role of CO₂, but it shows that we may have been watching the wrong conductor. The Montreal Protocol, which saved the ozone layer, has also turned out to be a powerful tool for stabilizing the climate.

The chlorofluorocarbon CFC-12 is 10,000 times more effective as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide per molecule, and its atmospheric lifetime is about 100 years.

In Kim Stanley Robinson's novel 'The Ministry for the Future,' the climate crisis is addressed through radical measures, but the book does not touch on the role of halogenated gases; here it rather resonates with the idea that unexpected factors can govern climate.

Concepts
global warming greenhouse effect sea surface temperature ERSST El Niño OISST v2.1 UAH satellite record sea surface temperature anomaly climate ENSO seasonal cycle Earth's energy imbalance seasonal forcing Satellite layers GPCP land carbon sink cold gas natural variability Jin-Timmermann model El Niño-Southern Oscillation