The Sun Conducts Ice Ages express

Original: "A First Principles Approach to the 100,000-year Problem"

arXiv:2604.12143 · 2026-04-13 · CC BY 4.0 · 1 min

Exoplanets Chaotic Dynamics Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

A simple model shows the Sun directly sets the 100,000-year rhythm of ice ages — without a complex chemical score.

For 800,000 years, ice ages have occurred every 100,000 years. The rhythm matches the elongation of Earth's orbit. But the orbit changes the flow of solar heat so subtly — as if the conductor barely moved the baton, yet the orchestra thundered. It remained a mystery how this weak signal controls the ice sheets.

Previously, it was thought that the climate itself amplifies the nudges: melting ice and carbon dioxide act like a megaphone. But new research shows that a model of the Sun's direct effect on ice — without amplifiers — reproduces the data over 800,000 years.

The ocean acts as a mute: it dampens the 400,000-year cycle, leaving the 100,000-year one loud.

The model refutes the need for complex chemistry. It also explained an anomaly from 400,000 years ago — a prolonged interglacial — by random heat from the ocean. Nature is conducted from space: simply and without a chemical score.

Whole graph →

The ocean's mute: The 400,000-year orbital cycle exists, but in the ice age record it is absent — the ocean dampens slow oscillations, leaving only the 100,000-year rhythm.

Scientists

Ludwig Boltzmann John von Neumann Josiah Willard Gibbs Henri Poincaré Joseph von Fraunhofer Galileo Galilei

Concepts

annual cycle age of the universe solar cycle cosmology seasonal forcing radiation dominated era climate model El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate temperature anomaly cosmic distance epidemic model inflationary cosmology first principles calculations natural variability decadal variability Bjerknes feedback Atlantic multidecadal oscillation primordial cosmic fluctuations big bang

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The Sun Conducts Ice Ages express