For 800,000 years, ice ages have occurred every 100,000 years. The rhythm matches the elongation of Earth's orbit. But the orbit changes the flow of solar heat so subtly — as if the conductor barely moved the baton, yet the orchestra thundered. It remained a mystery how this weak signal controls the ice sheets.
Previously, it was thought that the climate itself amplifies the nudges: melting ice and carbon dioxide act like a megaphone. But new research shows that a model of the Sun's direct effect on ice — without amplifiers — reproduces the data over 800,000 years.
The model refutes the need for complex chemistry. It also explained an anomaly from 400,000 years ago — a prolonged interglacial — by random heat from the ocean. Nature is conducted from space: simply and without a chemical score.
The ocean's mute: The 400,000-year orbital cycle exists, but in the ice age record it is absent — the ocean dampens slow oscillations, leaving only the 100,000-year rhythm.