In May 2024, thermometers in Jalisco seemed to go haywire: on May 10, one station recorded 38.4°C, nearly matching the historical maximum from 1994. The heat was so intense that even agave plants, accustomed to scorching conditions, slowed their growth. And the rains, which usually arrive in June, were delayed, leaving farmers nervously glancing at the sky.

The rainy season this year behaved like a guest who arrives late and leaves early. Steady rainfall only set in after July 20, and from mid-September a sharp decline began. The center and south of the state received 150–200 mm more than usual, while the coastal strip and borders with neighboring states fell short by 80 to 200 mm. This imbalance is like a blanket pulled to one side of the bed, leaving the other side exposed.

To understand why this happened, scientists looked into the atmospheric kitchen. In May–June, an anticyclone dominated over Mexico: a high-pressure area with clear skies. It acted like a lid on a pot: it suppressed convection, preventing clouds from rising and releasing rain, while also enhancing surface warming. The ground heated up like a skillet on low heat.

But the heat and the shift in rains are not just a whim of nature. They hit Jalisco's most sensitive spot: agriculture. Maize, the staple of the local diet, requires moisture at very specific growth stages. Blue agave, used to make tequila, though adept at conserving water thanks to its special type of photosynthesis, suffers from warm nights: they hinder sugar accumulation, reducing the quality of the raw material. Farmers are forced to change planting dates, and sometimes even abandon part of the harvest.

Now the thermometer in Jalisco does more than just show the temperature; it has become an indicator of change. The 2024 record is not a coincidence but a link in the chain of warming that is already altering the region's familiar rhythm of life. And if rains used to come like clockwork, now they resemble a capricious guest with whom it is increasingly difficult to come to terms.