Why Did Jalisco Get Hotter and Drier? ✛

Original: "Estado del clima en Jalisco: temporada de lluvias y comportamiento extremo de la temperatura en 2024"
arXiv:2507.11335 · 2025-07-15 · CC BY 4.0 · 1 min
In 2024, rains in the Mexican state of Jalisco arrived late and left early, while temperatures hit a record high.

In 2024, residents of the Mexican state of Jalisco faced unusual weather. Typically, rains begin in June, but that year they were delayed until late July and ended by mid-September. Meanwhile, some areas received too much rainfall, while others got too little. Temperatures, meanwhile, were the highest on record: on average 2.3°C above normal.

Why did this happen? A high-pressure system, an anticyclone with clear skies, lingered over Mexico for a long time. It acted like a lid on a pot: it prevented clouds from rising and releasing rain, while the ground beneath it kept heating up. It's like covering a skillet with a lid and leaving it on the stove: it gets hot inside, and steam can't escape.

Such weather takes a toll on plants. Corn needs moisture at specific times, and blue agave, used to make tequila, though hardy, accumulates fewer sugars during warm nights.

Now farmers in Jalisco are having to adjust their planting schedules and prepare for increasingly unpredictable rains. The thermometer, which once simply showed the temperature, has become a warning that the climate is changing.

Blue agave, used to make tequila, employs a special type of photosynthesis (CAM) that allows it to conserve water. But even such hardy plants suffer from heat: warm nights hinder sugar accumulation, reducing the quality of the raw material.

Concepts
El Niño Niño 3.4 spring predictability barrier La Niña ENSO NOAA CPC monsoon onset ERSST seasonal cycle precipitation anomaly interannual variability Westerly wind burst relative ONI Warm water volume forecast seasonal forcing climate IRI Multivariate ENSO Index Madden–Julian Oscillation