How an Algorithm Found El Niño in Ocean Data on Its Own ✎

Original: "Unsupervised Discovery of El Nino Using Causal Feature Learning on Microlevel Climate Data"
arXiv:1605.09370 · 2016-05-30 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
A computer distinguished the warm and cold phases of the Pacific Ocean without any hints.

A translator may not know a language, but can tell from the tone of voice whether a person is calm or agitated. In the same way, an algorithm that knew nothing about El Niño was fed 36 years of wind and water temperature records from the Pacific Ocean. It found two recurring states in those records. One turned out to be the ocean's warm phase, which scientists call El Niño. The other was the cold phase, La Niña.

El Niño is when water in the equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than usual, while La Niña is when it becomes cooler.

The algorithm first learned to predict water temperature from wind. Then it grouped similar combinations of wind and temperature. This yielded four wind types and four temperature types. Two of them matched El Niño and La Niña exactly. Standard data clustering that ignored the link between wind and water could not achieve this. And when the data were shuffled, the algorithm found nothing, because the link had disappeared. So it truly captured how wind influences ocean temperature.

This method can now be used to uncover other hidden patterns in the climate. For instance, one could take pressure and precipitation and see what stable states they form. In this way, computers might help scientists hear new "intonations" in the ocean and atmosphere that we do not yet discern.

The name 'El Niño' comes from the Spanish for 'the Christ child,' because the warm current often appears around Christmas.

Concepts
El Niño La Niña ENSO ERSST zebiak cane model El Niño index Westerly wind burst NOAA CPC Multivariate ENSO Index relative ONI Jin-Timmermann model natural variability spring predictability barrier NOAA PMEL / TAO seasonal cycle Bjerknes feedback Indian Ocean capacitor effect Southern Oscillation equatorial wave propagation TAO/TRITON moorings