The Sun is not a calm sphere but a boiling cauldron that follows its own rhythms. Roughly every 11 years, its activity peaks: more dark spots appear on its surface, and streams of charged particles fly into space. But hidden within this grand cycle is a shorter one — about 1.7 years. Known as the quasi-biennial oscillation, it governs the frequency of strong flares.
Scientists studied 72 events when particles from the Sun reached Earth in particularly powerful streams, and 37 strong X-ray flares. They found that these events recur with a period of 1.723 years. This number is no coincidence: it almost exactly matches the rhythm of tidal forces created by three planets — Venus, Earth, and Jupiter. When they align in a certain configuration, their combined gravitational pull slightly stretches and compresses the Sun, much as the Moon stretches Earth's oceans.
This tidal rhythm acts like a conductor, setting the tempo for internal waves in the zone where solar material begins to mix. These waves rise to the surface and trigger flares. Recent events — the powerful solar storm on May 10, 2024, and the strong flare on February 1, 2026—coincided with peaks in this tidal influence.
If this rhythm holds up, we'll have a simple calendar for predicting dangerous solar storms. Just knowing the positions of the three planets could tell us when the Sun is more likely to sneeze in Earth's direction.
The tidal influence of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter on the Sun is billions of times weaker than the Moon's pull on Earth's oceans, yet because of the Sun's enormous mass, even that tiny effect influences its magnetic rhythms.
In Arthur C. Clarke's novel "Solar Storm," humanity grapples with the aftermath of a powerful flare — now science has a hint at how to predict such events in advance.