How Fast Is the Universe Growing? The Measurement Dispute ✛ ✦

Original: "Distance-Ladder Measurements of the Hubble Constant: Recent Progress, Systematics, and Prospects"
· Xiaodian Chen, Shu Wang
arXiv:2606.26831 · 2026-06-25 · CC BY 4.0 · 1 min
Two precise ways to measure the universe's expansion give different answers, and that's a mystery.

Bread baking offers an unexpected clue for cosmology. To find out how fast dough rises, you can measure its height with a ruler or calculate it from the temperature and properties of the yeast. So it is with the expansion of the universe: one method relies on observing actual galaxies and stellar explosions, determining how fast they're receding. Another analyzes the ancient light that cooled over 13.8 billion years, and computes the expected expansion from the cosmological 'recipe.' The result: 73 kilometers per second per 3 million light-years versus 67.

A 9% difference seems small, but the statistical odds that the methods agree are negligible — less than one in a million. Even after checking with the latest James Webb Telescope, the discrepancy persists. The cosmic 'oven' clearly works differently than we thought: maybe the dough rose faster at first and then slowed down? Or hidden dark energy and dark matter have unexpected properties.

The first method was developed by Adam Riess, and the very relationship between speed and distance was discovered by Edwin Hubble nearly a century ago.

Solving this could rewrite textbooks.

At one point, estimates of the expansion rate differed by a factor of two: some scientists gave 50, others 100 km/s/Mpc. It was the Hubble Space Telescope that helped refine the number.

v = H_0 d
The recession velocity of a galaxy is proportional to its distance; the coefficient H₀ is the current expansion rate.
m - M = 5 \log_{10}(d/10)
The difference between the apparent m and absolute M magnitudes yields the distance d in parsecs; a key calibration tool.
Scientists
Adam RiessBrian SchmidtEdwin HubbleGeorges LemaîtreMaarten SchmidtSaul Perlmutter
Concepts
hubble constant measurement cosmic distance ladder hubble tension cosmic expansion uncertainty five sigma Hubble's law supernova cosmology kilometer per second per megaparsec cosmological parameters standard candle confidence level standard siren photometric distance hubble constant Hubble Space Telescope standard ruler type ia supernova cosmic distance measurement cepheid pantheon plus