statistics

five sigma

The Hubble tension is quantified as a 5 sigma discrepancy between expansion rate measurements.
33 related articles

Description

Five sigma (5σ) is a statistical significance threshold used in particle physics to claim a discovery. It means that the probability of the observed result occurring by random chance alone is less than about 1 in 3.5 million (corresponding to a p-value of 0.0000003). In the context of the Hubble tension, the discrepancy between measurements of the Universe's expansion rate from the early universe (cosmic microwave background) and the local universe (Cepheid variables and supernovae) is quantified as a 5 sigma deviation. This indicates that the two sets of measurements are extremely unlikely to be consistent with each other under the standard cosmological model, suggesting either new physics or unknown systematic errors.

History

The 5σ convention was established in particle physics in the 1960s and 1970s, particularly with the discovery of the J/ψ particle in 1974, and became standard practice for the Large Hadron Collider experiments. The Hubble tension itself was first noted in the 2010s as measurements improved.

How it works

The significance is calculated by comparing the difference between two measurements to their combined uncertainties. If the difference is large relative to the uncertainties, the significance in sigma units is high. For a normal distribution, 5σ corresponds to a probability of about 0.0000003 that the difference is due to random fluctuations. In practice, physicists use this threshold to avoid false claims, as many systematic effects can mimic small deviations. Reaching 5σ requires extremely precise measurements and careful control of systematic errors.

In practice

The 5σ threshold is used in high-energy physics experiments (e.g., CERN) to announce discoveries like the Higgs boson. In cosmology, it is used to assess the significance of tensions like the Hubble constant discrepancy, guiding whether new physics models are needed.

Fun fact

The 5σ threshold is so strict that, in a typical physics experiment, you would need to run the experiment about 3.5 million times to expect one false positive by chance.

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Related articles · 33

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