Subodh Kumar Saha

The Indian summer monsoon feeds a fifth of humanity, but its seasonal forecast has been considered nearly hopeless for decades: the potential predictability limit was estimated at only 45% of explained variability.

Every summer, a giant atmospheric engine unfolds over India: moist ocean winds bring the rains that sustain crops and the lives of two billion people. But this engine sputters, and forecasting it a season ahead remains elusive. Models give only rough answers, and a monsoon forecast error can cost millions of tons of food.