How a City Weathers a Disaster: Lessons from Bank Receipts

Original: "Impact of natural disasters on consumer behavior: case of the 2017 El Nino phenomenon in Peru"
arXiv:2008.04887 · 2020-08-11 · CC BY 4.0 · 2 min
Bank transactions from six million Peruvians show how floods reshaped shopping habits and how quickly the city returned to normal.

In February 2017, heavy rains hit Lima: rivers overflowed, roads flooded, and people were afraid to leave their homes. The city, like a person with a fever, fell out of its usual rhythm: shoppers went to stores less often and bought less.

El Niño is a warm current off the coast of Peru that brings downpours and flooding. In 2017, it was particularly strong.

Researchers decided to test exactly how a city weathers such a blow. They took data on 116.8 million bank transactions made by 1.5 million customers at 55,000 stores from June 2016 to May 2017. By comparing purchases in each neighborhood with the usual patterns for the whole country, they saw that during the floods the number of purchases dropped sharply. But within a few weeks, everything returned to normal.

However, not everyone was affected equally. In some neighborhoods, shopping activity declined, while in others it increased. People spent more on transportation, insurance, and health, and bought clothing less often. Grocery stores, pharmacies, hospitals, and gas stations became more important, while non-food stores lost customers. Large supermarkets, which usually form the core of the shopping network, temporarily shrank: their number dropped from 68 to 27.

The network core is a group of the most important and tightly interconnected stores. During a disaster, it shrinks, signaling stress in the economy.

This approach helps city services quickly identify which neighborhoods and businesses were hit hardest and direct aid there. It is like taking the city's pulse: if the rhythm is off, you need to act fast.

During the 2017 El Niño in Lima, sales of insurance policies surged: Peruvians, who insure only about three out of every hundred homes, rushed to protect their property after the first floods.

D^{(1)}_{(i,w)}(j) = KLD(S_i^{(j)} \| \bar{S})
A measure of how much the consumption structure in a given district and time deviates from the typical national pattern
T^{(u)}_{M_i,M_j}(t)
Element of the transition matrix of the Markov chain describing an individual's sequence of purchases
C(t) = \alpha S(t)^{-1} W(t)^T + (1-\alpha) \frac{1}{N} \mathbf{1}\mathbf{1}^T
Iterative formula for computing node importance in a weighted directed transaction graph
Concepts
El Niño La Niña ENSO Westerly wind burst El Niño index ERSST Indian Ocean capacitor effect Bjerknes feedback interannual variability relative ONI Multivariate ENSO Index Warm water volume NOAA CPC spring predictability barrier drought NOAA PMEL / TAO recharge oscillator model natural variability Southern Oscillation precipitation anomaly