The Cosmic Rift: How the Expansion Rate Crushes Black Hole Births ✛ ✎ ✦

Original: "Running into tension: primordial black holes from ultra-slow-roll inflation, spectral running, and the Hubble tension"
arXiv:2606.31362 · 2026-06-30 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 1 min
Solving one cosmological mystery only slams the door harder on primordial black holes — dark matter candidates.

Cosmologists are like tailors stitching a suit from two different measurements. One tape is telescope data, the other a theoretical pattern. Sooner or later, the jacket stops matching the trousers.

The prime suspects for dark matter — primordial black holes — could have emerged from tiny overdensities blown up by inflation — the newborn universe's instant swelling (idea of Alan Guth). But this requires a special kind of inflation with a stall, which leaves a noticeable imprint on the cosmic microwave background, the ancient glow from the edge of the visible cosmos. That imprint — like a pattern on fabric — must have a very specific curve, but real observations paint a different picture.

Adding to the confusion is the Hubble tension: two ways of measuring the expansion rate give different numbers — like two tapes with different scales. To reconcile them, scientists introduce early dark energy — a brief accelerating kick in the cosmos's infancy. The expansion constant itself was discovered by Edwin Hubble.

New work shows that early dark energy alters the ancient light pattern so that the curve needed for black holes becomes completely impossible. Trying to patch one seam rips another. This doesn't mean primordial black holes don't exist — but the most natural recipe for baking them is coming apart at the seams.

A primordial black hole with the mass of an asteroid would be tinier than a proton, yet could weigh as much as a mountain. If such objects really are whizzing around us, a few pass harmlessly through your body each year.

The idea of primordial black holes as dark matter has inspired sci-fi authors: in Peter Watts’ novel Blindsight, they’re used to explain gravitational anomalies.

M_{\rm PBH} \simeq \mathcal{O}(1)\,M_\odot \times e^{-2(N_1 - 18)}
The mass of the resulting primordial black hole depends exponentially on the position of the USR feature relative to CMB scales: the closer the feature, the heavier the PBH.
\alpha_s \simeq -12\frac{\beta}{V_0^2} - 36\frac{\delta_\star^2}{V_0^2}
The running parameter α_s is determined by deviations from the inflection point of the inflaton potential and is inevitably negative if the inflaton crosses that point.
Scientists
Alan GuthAlexander FriedmannAndrei LindeGeorges LemaîtreJames PeeblesStephen Hawking
Concepts
early dark energy black hole memory burden mass inflation hubble tension inflation refined inflationary dynamics supermassive black hole growth central engine interaction model inflationary gravitational waves extreme mass ratio inspiral hills mechanism hubble constant measurement eternal inflation primordial black hole five sigma inflationary cosmology dark energy black hole interaction hubble flow wald entropy