A Tailwind for Six Galaxies: Why Astronomers Were Fooled ✛

Original: "Reanalyzing Megamasers: a low value of $$H_0$$ from a local probe changes our view of the Hubble Tension"
· Richard Watkins, Hume A. Feldman
arXiv:2608.06247v1 · 2026-08-06 · CC BY 4.0 · 1 min
Six distant galaxies, pushed by a common flow, inflated the universe's expansion rate — after correction, the Hubble constant matched early-universe data.

Six runners sprint down a track, and the wind is at their backs. The judges don't notice the wind and record times that are too fast. Likewise, six distant galaxies — cosmic lasers in disguise — led astronomers astray in measuring the universe's expansion rate.

These galaxies allow direct distance measurements, bypassing the long chain of the distance ladder. From distance and recession velocity, astronomers calculate the Hubble constant — the number that tells how fast the universe expands. Previously, these six galaxies yielded a value that agreed with the distance ladder but contradicted early-universe data. Yet all six galaxies are moving in one direction — like runners pushed by the same wind. That motion adds to their velocity, making the expansion look faster than it is.

Peculiar velocity is a galaxy's deviation from the overall expansion flow, caused by the gravitational pull of neighboring clusters. For nearby galaxies, it can reach hundreds of kilometers per second.

A new map of galaxy motions, built with computer simulations, revealed that the three most distant of the six are part of a common flow. Once this 'tailwind' was accounted for, the Hubble constant dropped to 68–70 km/s/Mpc. This matches early-universe data but disagrees with the distance ladder.

Now suspicion falls on calibration errors in the distance ladder, not on new physics. The six runners are still running, but the judges now know about the wind — and the result has been recalculated.

Megamasers are natural cosmic lasers: water molecules in accretion disks around supermassive black holes amplify microwave radiation. Their angular sizes and velocities allow distance measurements with a few percent accuracy, making them a valuable cosmological tool.

d_m(z) = \frac{c}{H_0(1+z)} \int_0^z \frac{dz'}{\sqrt{\Omega_m(1+z')^3 + (1-\Omega_m)}}
Relates redshift z to distance d_m given matter density Ω_m and Hubble constant H0.
\sigma_i^2 = \sigma_{di}^2 + \left( \frac{\sigma_v}{c} \frac{d(d_m(z))}{dz} \right)^2
Combines the distance measurement error and the contribution from peculiar velocity uncertainty σ_v.
Scientists
Adam RiessBrian SchmidtEdwin HubbleGeorges LemaîtreMaarten SchmidtSaul Perlmutter
Concepts
hubble tension hubble constant measurement cosmic distance ladder cosmic expansion uncertainty angular diameter distance kilometer per second per megaparsec early dark energy megaparsec five sigma supernova cosmology gravimeter high redshift galaxies Hubble's law microarcsecond geopotential height reverberation mapping gaussian process regression redshift Hubble Space Telescope distance