The Political System as a Galaxy: A Quantum-Mechanical Model of Public Opinion ✎ express

Original: "A quantum-like model of political consensus via non self-adjoint Hamiltonians"
· Fabio Bagarello, Gloria Liarda
arXiv:2606.19014 · 2026-06-17 · arXiv non-exclusive · independent analysis · 2 min
The mathematics of quantum mechanics helped describe how public support for governments changes over time.

You can think of a political system as a vast galaxy — a gravitationally bound system of stars, gas, and dust. In this analogy, parties are the stars, radiating the light of public activity, while their supporters are dark matter, the invisible substance that emits no electromagnetic radiation but whose mass holds the whole structure together. The mood of this mass fluctuates: it can condense into hot support, much like regions of star formation, or dissipate into cold disappointment, like gas drifting through interstellar space. Over time, the spread of opinions grows, increasing entropy — the thermodynamic measure of disorder, which here parallels the dispersal of particles in a cooling cloud, where order gives way to chaos.

To describe such flows, physicists turned to the mathematical machinery of quantum mechanics — the branch of physics that studies the behavior of microscopic particles, whose foundations were laid by Werner Heisenberg. The key idea in this approach is that any system exchanges energy with its surroundings, and the researchers replaced physical energy with a social quantity: people's trust. The political galaxy is not closed: trust comes and goes, just as stars are born from interstellar matter and fade once they exhaust their fuel. To analyze such an open system, the authors used equations describing non-stationary states, where parameters evolve over time.

The authors examined three possible evolutionary paths arising from the solutions to these equations. The first scenario: when a coalition acts cohesively, support grows steadily, like a galaxy in a calm phase, where stars move along stable orbits. The second scenario: internal disagreements cause sharp swings in public opinion, akin to collisions of star clusters that generate shock waves and bursts of star formation. The third scenario is fragile equilibrium: the slightest crisis brings down the entire system, like gravitational collapse, when a gas cloud loses stability and contracts into a dense core. Thus, abstract equations originally derived for quantum systems explain why some governments retain popularity for long periods while others lose it rapidly — all without a single sociological poll, based solely on mathematical modeling of trust dynamics.

It turns out that the mathematics of quantum mechanics can capture the very moment when public opinion is about to shift dramatically — earlier than analysts would notice.

A similar idea underlies psychohistory from Isaac Asimov's Foundation series: there, mathematics predicted the fates of galactic empires.

Scientists
David DeutschErwin SchrödingerJohn Stewart BellLouis de BroglieLov GroverPaul Benioff
Concepts
hamiltonian Hamiltonian mechanics Hamilton's rule time evolution coupled general circulation model Boltzmann equation quantum-like models quantum dynamics complex system dynamics collective behavior classical model harmonic oscillator agent Dynamical Systems product operator semiclassical stochastic dynamical system koopman operator Stochastic modeling emergent collective learning