Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection states that the rate of increase in fitness equals the additive genetic variance in fitness.Ronald Fisher formulated his theorem in 1930, linking genetics and evolution mathematically. He showed that the rate of increase in the mean fitness of a population (i.e., its adaptation to conditions) at any moment equals the additive genetic variance in fitness. Simply put, evolution proceeds faster the more heritable differences exist in the population that affect survival and reproduction. If all individuals are genetically identical for these traits, selection is powerless. The theorem became a cornerstone of quantitative genetics and explained why genetic diversity is the fuel of evolution.
The theorem was proposed by Ronald Fisher in his book 'The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection' (1930). Fisher sought to reconcile Darwinian evolution with Mendelian genetics, showing that continuous variation in quantitative traits could be explained by summing the effects of many discrete genes. The theorem sparked decades of debate due to ambiguous wording, but was later clarified and confirmed by the work of many geneticists, including J.B.S. Haldane and Sewall Wright.
The theorem is used in plant and animal breeding to predict response to selection, and in evolutionary biology to estimate the adaptive potential of populations. It underlies the concept of heritability and models in quantitative genetics. Limits of applicability: the theorem accurately describes only the instantaneous rate of fitness change in a constant environment; in the presence of mutations, drift, or frequency-dependent selection, it requires modifications.
The theorem explains why agricultural crops with high genetic diversity adapt more quickly to diseases and climate — this is used in breeding.
The theorem predicts that natural selection always increases fitness, but in practice the environment constantly changes, so populations are forever 'chasing' an ideal they never reach.
| \text{Enrichment} | variable | Enrichment factor — enrichment factor |
| P(i|b) | variable | Probability of element i in subset b — probability |
| P(i|\text{all}) | variable | Probability of element i in the whole set — probability |











